The AI hype in the media obscures the fact that we're clearly in another goddamn venture capital bubble right now.
As the Wall Street Journal said earlier this month (article is paywalled), "... In a presentation earlier this month, the venture-capital firm Sequoia estimated that the AI industry spent $50 billion on the Nvidia chips used to train advanced AI models last year, but brought in only $3 billion in revenue."
On top of that, the industry is running at a loss on power consumption alone, never mind labour costs (which are quite high: those generative LLMs require extensive human curation of the input data they require for training).
So, we've been here before. Most recently with cryptocurrency/blockchain (which is still going on, albeit much less prominently as governments and police go after the most obvious thieves and con men like Sam Bankman Fried).
But there've been other internet-related bubbles before.
I was in on the ground floor of the dot-com boom from 1995-2000, and the hype back then was absolutely bonkers: that may be part of why I'm so thoroughly soured on the current wave of bilge and bullshit. (That, and it's clearly being pumped up by fascist-adjacent straight white males with an unadmitted political agenda, namely to shore up the structures of privilege and entitlement that keep them wealthy.)
The common feature of these bubbles is a shitload of hype and promises from hucksters who fail to deliver a viable product but suck up as much investment capital as they can. A handful of them survive: from dot-com 1.0, the stand-outs are Amazon and Google (Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, et al came along much later—social media was a later, smaller bubble). Other survivors include Paypal, eBay, and Doubleclick (the latter being merged with Google to form a monstrous global advertising monopoly). The survivors tend to leave behind infrastructure: the failures leave behind t-shirts, second hand Aeron chairs, and motivational posters.
If I had more energy I'd be writing a snarky, satirical, 21st century Jetson's style short story right now to highlight the way this plays out. It'd be set in a future where all the dot-com 1.0 hype and promises actually delivered and laid the bedrock of our lives in 2025.
But of course, that's not the story. Instead, the story would explore the unanticipated drawbacks. Starting with "oops, the Amazon drone delivering your neighbour's new dishwasher just fell through your roof; but trades.com only shows you roofers who live in Boston, England, not Boston, MA".
In this shiny dotcom 1.0 future, shoppers always carry their laptop to the supermarket so they can use their CueCat scanner to scan product discount coupon codes off the packaging: they collect the money off vouchers using internet delivered over the supermarket wifi (which blasts them with ads they're forced to click through in return for bandwidth).
The Teledesic satellite network got funded and built out, so you now have 9600 baud global roaming data on your Microsoft Windows CE phone. Which has a fold-out QWERTY keyboard because nobody likes writing on a touch-sensitive screen with a stylus and multitouch was still-born. But your phone calls are secure, thanks to the mandatory built-in Clipper chip.
But Pets dot com just mailed you the third dead and decomposing Rottweiler of the month, instead of the cat food subscription you ordered: the SKUs for Rottie pups and Whiskas are cross-linked in their database, and freight shipping from China takes weeks.
In this gleaming, chromed, Jetsons style future, the Intel Itanium didn't fail, Macs still run on Power architecture, and Microsoft OS/2 4.0 runs everywhere on MIPS, Alpha, and SPARC workstations. Linux is nearly extinct thanks to restrictive embrace-and-extinguish commercial bootloader licensing terms ...
But don't ask about Apple. Oh dear. Oh no. You asked about Apple, didn't you? And why are all those workstations running OS/2?
Solaris never really took over the workstation market; NeXT ate Sun's lunch in the 90s. Today, UNIX research workstations are all featureless black cubes or monoliths and come bundled with Mathematica and FrameMaker. Cheaper RISC-based workstations are all the domain of Microsoft, as are PCs. Apple lives on in a strange twilight: Steve Jobs was unavailable in 1998 (he was tied up buying Oracle), and Apple was not-exactly-saved by buying Be and hiring on Jean-Louis Gassée as their CEO. He staunched the bleeding through strategic alliances, but in the end Gassée had no alternative but to sell Apple to IBM as Big Blue tried to push their Power Architecture down into the realm of business personal computing.
Macintosh® Powerbook™ is all that's left of the glory that was Apple: a range of black plastic PowerPC business laptops sold by Lenovo. Main value proposition: they run COBOL business applications real good. Meanwhile, the UK's Acorn Computers bought what was left of the NewtonOS intellectual property and continues to market the Newton Messagepad series as ruggedized retail and industrial data capture terminals in Europe, using the unique Graffiti text entry system from Palm Computing).
The world of MP3 music players is dominated by Archos. Video is ... well, video as such isn't allowed on the public internet because the MPAA hooked up with the cable TV corporations to force legislation mandating blockers inside all ISPs. Napster does not exist. Bittorrent does not exist. YouTube does not exist. But what passes for video on the internet today is 100% Macromedia Flash, so things could be worse.
So. What survivors from the glorious-future-that-wasn't would you like to memorialize in this shared fictional nightmare?